Applied Logistics Regression
Applied Logistics Regression, courier, warehousing, transportation, logistics, inventory management solutions from National Logistics.

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Applied Logistics Regression

Logistic regression models were run on each of these three groups. The dependent variable in all models was problem substance use, defined above. Independent variables are listed below. Only those predictors obtained by the NHSDA that could be assumed to remain unchanged as people age beyond age 29 were considered for the models. Because initiation of cigarettes, alcohol, or marijuana rarely occurs after age 29 (Chen & Kandel, 1995), the age at first use variables (as well as the definition of low, medium, and high risk) essentially correspond to "ever use" of these substances. Nevertheless, the models did take into account initiation after age 29 because a few cases with initiation at age 30 or older would be included in the sample and classified as "no use before age 30." In the following list, the reference group for categorical variables is the first category listed after the variable.

  • Included in all models: Age (continuous), gender (female, male), race/ethnicity (white/other-not Hispanic, Hispanic, black-not Hispanic), cigarette use (never smoked daily before age 30, smoked daily before age 30).
  • Included in models for medium and high risk populations: Age at first alcohol use (continuous).
  • Included in model for high risk population: Age at first marijuana use (continuous).

Logistic regressions were run using analysis weights and SUrvey DAta ANalysis (SUDAAN) software to account for the complex sample design of the NHSDA in the calculation of parameter estimates and estimates of standard errors (Shah, Barnwell, & Bieler, 1998). An alpha level of .05 was used in determining statistical significance of regression parameters for the discussion of results.
The parameters estimated from the three regression models were then applied to the constructed 2020 population. A predicted probability of being a problem substance user was assigned to each sample case, based on the substance use category (low, medium, or high risk) the case fell into and the logistic regression model parameters associated with that category. Weighted sums of the predicted probabilities were then tabulated, representing the estimated prevalence in 2020.

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